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Compare Bitcoin power-law and custom CAGR scenarios. Enter a BTC price and investment, choose a target year or 5–10 year interval, and view future values.
Quick answer
This calculator separates two assumptions. A power law expresses price as a coefficient multiplied by the number of days since Bitcoin’s genesis raised to an exponent. A custom CAGR instead applies the same effective annual growth rate to each year of your holding period. Neither assumption establishes what a future market price will be. Your USD investment is divided by the entered BTC price to determine the number of coins held, with no additional purchases.
With an illustrative BTC price of USD 100,000 and an investment of USD 10,000, you hold 0.1 BTC. At a hypothetical future price of USD 150,000 the holding would be worth USD 15,000. This demonstrates unit conversion, not an expected return.
The editable example curve uses log10(P) = −17.01 + 5.82 × log10(d), with d measured from 3 January 2009. Published parameter choices and regression windows vary; this is an illustrative parameterization, not a current fitted estimate or a guaranteed fair value. The curve is independent of the input spot price. Changing your own CAGR changes the comparison scenario, including for a hypothetical stock holding. Fees, taxes and inflation are excluded. Not financial advice.
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It is free without an account. It uses fixed parsing rules, formatting or arithmetic in your browser, without AI or paid API calls. KnowledgePilot’s AI summarizers are separate products.
Inputs and document files are processed locally. The optional Refresh BTC price button connects directly to Coinbase for a USD spot quote. Your investment amount and calculation inputs are not sent with that request. Optional saved drafts stay in your browser, so download a copy before clearing its data.
Review the worked example and limits above. The output follows the information you enter; it does not verify the source or supply missing facts. Check important details against the original material.
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